We focus particularly on contexts where simulation modelling techniques are essential to fully capture the potential benefits of an intervention—such as impacts on waiting times, system capacity, and clinical workload.

Our work is especially relevant when an intervention, MedTech or disease area requires a nuanced understanding of patient history, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics or reduction and management of queues and wating times to accurately assess cost-effectiveness and its economic value. We apply a range of advanced simulation modelling  methods and collaborate closely with industrial, clinical, and academic partners.

For further information, please contact Dr Armando Vargas-Palacios.

What We Do

Medical technologies, medical devices, digital health tools, diagnostic test and new interventions can offer significant benefits to patients and health systems. However, in many cases, the value of such innovations is primarily realised through improvements in system efficiency—such as reduced waiting times, optimised referral pathways, and alleviated clinical workload. On the other hand, sometimes patients’ outcomes can only be accurately assed or are heavily influenced by patient background characteristics, previous progression and patient history are taken into consideration.

In these contexts, traditional economic evaluation models, such as decision trees or Markov models, may be inadequate. Simulation modelling provides a flexible and robust alternative, enabling us to incorporate time-dependent processes, patient heterogeneity, and resource limitations. This approach enhances the precision of estimates for both costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), ultimately supporting more informed decision-making.

We specialise in:

• Individual patient-level economic evaluations of early- and late-stage technologies, under both unlimited capacity (assuming all necessary resources are available) and limited capacity (where constraints on workforce or system capacity affect implementation and impact).

• System-level simulations to assess the effects of interventions on patient flow, waiting lists, and optimal service configuration.

We work in close collaboration with several key partners, including:

• NIHR Leeds HealthTech Research Centre (HRC) for Accelerated Surgical Care, which supports the development of innovative surgical technologies—helping companies deliver faster, more effective diagnostics and treatments along surgical pathways.

• NIHR Leeds Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), which drives innovation in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of conditions across clinical themes such as antimicrobial resistance, cardiometabolic disease, haematology, musculoskeletal disorders, pathology, and surgical technologies.

Collaboration and Support

We are happy to provide preliminary advice on research design and welcome collaboration on medium- to large-scale research proposals. Additionally, we support postgraduate research in this area and offer supervision for pre-doctoral and doctoral projects related to simulation and capacity modelling in health economics.

Who we are:

Lead

• Dr Armando Vargas-Palacios

Members

• Dr Alison Smith

• Dr Paola Cocco

• Dr Ramzi Fayad