Oncoscan as a prognostic device to identify high risk of progression to Muscle invasive disease amongst G3T1 Bladder Cancer Patients


Funded by Innovate UK

Using a decision analytic model, the objective of this study was to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of OncoScan as a prognostic test to identify high risk of progression to muscle invasive disease amongst G3T1 bladder cancer (BC) patients, compared to current practice in which patients are offered Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) or cystectomy in a subjective manner. Extensive sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to gain insights into the characteristics of the test that would be necessary in order for it to be cost-effective, while also identifying the impact of parameter uncertainty on model results. Value of information analysis was also conducted to identify key gaps in the evidence pathway which drive uncertainty and which can also help to define the optimal design for future studies.


This early economic evaluation has shown the value of the introduction of a prognostic test which can guide treatment decisions amongst patients with high risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (G3t1). The results here indicate that a test of this type has the potential to have a positive effect on patient outcomes and be cost-effective depending on its price. The results here acknowledge the uncertainty in the model parameter values, and have shown the value of conducting further research in order to draw more robust conclusions.